Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality, Lex Fridman Podcast 321

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykY69lSpDdo

"Now that's something that could actually just just about be done today where would listen to your conversation understand what you're saying, understand what you're not missing and give you that information but another step is to actually go inside your brain and there are some prototypes where you can connect your brain, they actually don't have the amount of bandwidth that we need, they can work but they work fairly slowly so if if it actually would connect to your neocortex and the neocortex which I described in how to create a mind, the neocortex is actually, it has different levels and as you go up the levels, it's kind of like a pyramid, the top level is fairly small and that's the level where you want to connect these brain extenders so I believe that will happen in the 2030, we will actually, so just the way this is greatly amplified by being connected to the cloud, we can connect our own brain to the cloud and just do what we can do by using this machine"

-Ray Kurzweil

"Do you think it would look like the brain computer interface of like neuralink so would it be"

-Lex Fridman

"Well neuralink it's an attempt to do that, it doesn't have the bandwidth that we need"

-Ray Kurzweil

"Yet, right?"

-Lex Fridman

"Right but I think I mean they're going to get permission for this because there are a lot of people who absolutely need it because they can't communicate and I know a couple of people like that who have ideas and they cannot, they don't, they cannot move their muscles and so on, they can't communicate, so for them this would be very valuable but we could all use it basically be turn us into something that would be like we have a phone but it would be in our minds, it would be kind of instantaneous"

-Ray Kurzweil

"And maybe communication between two people would not require this low bandwidth mechanism of language, spoken word"

-Lex Fridman

"Yes, exactly, we don't know what that would be although we do know that computers can share information like language instantly, they can share many many books in a second so we could do that as well, if you look at what our brain does it actually can manipulate different parameters so we we talk about these large language models I mean I had written that it requires a certain amount of information in order to be effective and that we would not see AI really being effective until it got to that level and we had large language models there were like 10 billion bytes didn't work very well, they finally got to 100 billion bytes and now they work fairly well and and now we're going to a trillion bytes, if you say LAMDA has a hundred a billion bytes what does that mean, well what what if you had something that had one byte, one one parameter, maybe you want to tell whether or not something's an elephant or not and so you put in something that would detect its trunk, if it has a trunk it's an elephant, if it doesn't have a trunk it's not an elephant; that will work fairly well, there's a few problems with and it, really wouldn't be able to tell what the trunk is but anyway"

-Ray Kurzweil

"And maybe other things other than elephants have trunks you might get really confused, I'm not sure which animals have trunks but you know, that's how you define a trunk but yeah that's one parameter, you can do okay"

-Lex Fridman

"Yes, yea, exactly, so these things have a hundred billion parameters so they're able to deal with very complex issues"

-Ray Kurzweil

"All kinds of trunks"

-Lex Fridman

"Human beings actually have a little bit more than that but they're getting to the point where they can emulate humans, if we were able to connect this to our neocortex we would basically add more of these abilities to make distinctions and it could ultimately be much smarter and also be attached to information that we feel is reliable so that's where we're headed"

-Ray Kurzweil

"So you think that there will be a merger in the 2030, an increasing amount of merging between the either human brain and the AI brain"

-Lex Fridman

"Exactly, and the AI brain is really an emulation of human beings I mean that's why we're creating them because human beings act the same way and this is basically to amplify them I mean this [smartphone] amplifies our brain, it's a little bit clumsy to interact with but it definitely, it's a you know way beyond what what we had 15 years ago"

-Ray Kurzweil

"But the implementation becomes different just like a bird versus the airplane, the even though the AI brain is an emulation it starts adding features we might not otherwise have like ability to consume a huge amount of information quickly like look up thousands of wikipedia articles in one take"

-Lex Fridman

"Exactly, we can get for example issues like simulated biology where it can simulate many different things at once, we already had one example of simulated biology which is the moderna vaccine and that's going to be now the way in which we create medications but they were able to simulate what each example of an mrna would do to a human being and they were able to simulate that quite reliably and we actually simulated billions of different mrna sequences and they found the ones that they were the best and they created the vaccine and they did and talked about doing that quickly, they did that in two days, now how long would a human being take to simulate billions of different mrna sequences I I don't know that we could do it at all but it would take many years, they did it in two days and one of the reasons that people didn't like vaccines is because it was done too quickly you know it's done too fast and they actually included the time it took to test it out which was 10 months so they figured okay it took 10 months to create this actually it took us two days and we also will be able to ultimately do the tests in a few days as well"

-Ray Kurzweil

"Oh because we can stimulate how the body will respond to it"

-Lex Fridman

"Yeah that's a little bit more complicated because the body's has a lot of different elements and we have to simulate all of that but that's coming as well so ultimately we could create it in a few days and then test it in a few days and would be done and we can do that with every type of medical you know insufficiency that we have"

-Ray Kurzweil

"So curing all diseases, improving certain functions of the body, supplements, drugs for recreation, for health, for performance, for productivity, all that kind of stuff"

-Lex Fridman

"Yes, yea, well that's where we're headed because I mean right right now we have a very inefficient way of creating these new medications but we've already shown it and the moderna vaccine is actually the best of the of the vaccines we've had and it literally took two days to create and we'll get to the point where we can test it out also quickly"

-Ray Kurzweil